Picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby is easy ? Just choose the preferred and then after the two most exciting moments in sports only go money your tickets.
That plan has worked six years in a row, beginning with Orb in 2013, who returned $12.80 for a $2 win wager, and for example last year where Justify got the work done as the preferred, returning his backers $7.80. What the hell is happening?
By 2005 until 2012 the average win mutual was 41, and we had two upset winners who paid over $100–Giacomo ($102.60) at 2005 and Mine That Bird ($103.20) in 2009.
This year Game Winner is your 9-2 morning line favorite after the scratch of Omaha Beach on Wednesday.
The Bob Baffert trainee would be the real deal, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, leading to him winning the Eclipse Award for top juvenile of 2018. He’s lost both of his starts this year, but set in solid efforts in runner up finishes.
He is a logical favourite but must deal with two of his stablemates that both have solid credentials, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner up Improbable. They’re the co-second choices on the morning line in 5-1.
Yes, Hall of fame Trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled the Triple Crown winner in two of the previous four decades will be sending out the top three gambling choices in the race. It’ll be the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby a trainer has had the three betting choices.
That’s a lot of firepower for one barn and makes it only a little less probable a longshot will win this season’s edition.
But they still need to run the race. On Kentucky Oaks Day, we saw the winner juvenile turf filly of 2018 Newspaperofrecord go down to defeat chances of 1-5 in the Edgewood (G3).
So, let’s search for three Derby longshots that May Have an Opportunity to be in the hunt when they come into the stretch under the Twin Spires on Saturday evening:
Tacitus (8-1)
Tacitus is coming from a good looking win in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, He started off his three-year-old campaign by winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He broke his maiden on a wet track and contains a solid off track pedigree. He’s by Tapit and also the first foal to race out of the stakes winner Close Hatches, a multiple Grade 1 winner who made $2.7 million and was the champion older female in 2014.
The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who has not had some success in the Derby (0 8, the best finish with Hofburg last year (seventh). The Wood hasn’t been a productive race within the past 15 years or so. We have to return to Funny Cide in 2003 to find the last Derby winner to prep there. Total 20 Derby winners utilized the Wood as a prep. The colt seems as though he has some upside and should find a good trip sitting mid pack with an ideal post.
Code of Honor (12-1)
Code of Honor is trained by Shug McGaughey who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb in the slop. I have enjoyed this colt since his runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) last year in his second career start. He failed to shoot at the Mucho Macho Man in his three-year-old introduction, checking in fourth, also bounced back with a clever triumph in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at 9-1.
Last out in the Florida Derby (G1) he was bumped coming out of the gate, raced near the back of the bunch behind a dawdling pace and made up some ground late. He needs pace and may not get it, but I am confident jockey John Velazquez will find this guy close enough that he will have an impact late.
Spinoff (30-1)
Trained by Todd Pletcher with two Derby wins under his belt (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming at 2017), this colt is lightly raced and flying under the radar. He was third at the Saratoga Special (G2) last summer at Saratoga and has set in two impressive efforts this season. He rolled over first-level allowance firm by 11 3/4 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs off a six-month layoff. He then left his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he tracked the early pace, took over the direct heading for home but got run down By My Standards. He’s bred to enjoy a wet track and will be a big cost. The outside post isn’t perfect, but he’s enough tactical speed to be in the mix .
Handicapper Michael Dempsey will soon be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark along with his full card reports with selections, evaluation, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks are available every day at turfnsport.com.

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