Last night’s FanDuel MLB DFS Picks were a mixed bag of manufacturing and frustration.
We ended up on the ideal side of the Jose Berrios/Robbie Ray discussion as Berrios was good in their own outing from the visiting White Sox. The right-hander hurled 7.1 innings of both two-run chunk to go along with eight punchouts, making his 13th win of the year from the procedure. He walked four, struck out seven and got a no-decision, although ray allowed only one hit and went six innings.
As they scored eight runs contrary to a fighting Reds bullpen and Kevin Gausman our four-man Cubs pile showed out. The major hit came out of Kyle Schwarber who clubbed a three-run home run off of Gausman in the very first inning. While he also added a pair of RBI as well — nicholas Castellanos stayed hot with another twice — his 55th of the season. While Nico Hoerner scored, ben Zobrist delivered value. I enjoy.
The bothersome part of the lineup came in the form of our three-man Brewers stack. Milwaukee scored five runs, but Cory Spangenberg of players did the damage with a homer and a triple. Yasmani Grandal submitted a zero, Mike Moustakas gave us just one walk while Eric Thames delivered worth with a double, a single and a run scored.
All told, it was a good lineup with the exception of two players, however I’ll take these results and the profits attached.
Let us turn our focus to tonight’s big principal slate that is 14-game and determine if we could make it two in a row!
P — Justin Verlander (HOU) — $12,000 vs. TEX
I really did look around to see if I could squeeze some value from a different pitcher on this slate for GPPs, but the fact is I just can’t fade Verlander inside this matchup because his strikeout upside is merely massive from the swing-and-miss Texas Rangers. Not merely is Verlander entering this outing as the AL Cy Young favorite because of his 2.58 ERA, 18 wins and massive 12.01 K/9 speed, but he takes to a Rangers team that owns a 25.4% K-rate versus right-handed pitching this season, great to the fifth-highest mark in all of baseball. Verlander is very familiar with this Texas lineup as he’s had his share of excursions against them this season. Tonight will mark the first time beginning of the year for Verlander against those Rangers, and he’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA having a 11.70 K/9 speed against them across the first five. However, if we take his first start of the season against Texas — and next start complete — in which he allowed four earned runs and struck out just four, Verlander owns a 1.73 ERA and a 12.12 K/9 clip against them over his last four starts including a 12-strikeout effort against them in his last start against the Rangers. Considering I’ve discovered a quality lineup even with the pricey Verlander at the very best, I believe all of us must be rolling with the upcoming Hall of Famer tonight.
C/1B — Freddie Freeman (ATL) — $3,800 vs. PHI
It is an NL East clash tonight in Atlanta since the Braves take on the Phillies in hopes of buring that the Phillies and for all from the NL playoff race. I believe they will do exactly that tonight behind a strong operation against right-hander Vince Velasquez plus a weak Phillies’pen. Velasquez possesses a 4.95 ERA and 5.44 FIP in the season when allowing home runs in a large 2.08 HR/9 clip. In addition, he owns a 5.40 ERA and also 5.69 FIP on the path to go alongside a 4.19 BB/9 rate that is miles greater than his 2.43 markers at home, so I’m all in to a four-man Braves stack in this 1 tonight, beginning here with Freeman. It’s been a year old mashing right-hander pitching to its long time Braves first baseman as he has posted a big-time .291 ISO, 1.030 OPS, .420 wOBA plus a big 159 wRC+ against righties here in 2019. The amounts are quite similar in the home, however the ability jumps to some .317 ISO in SunTrust Park vs righties, a place that caters well to left-handed power hitters like Freeman. He doesn’t have lots of extra-base strikes against him, but Freeman has gone 9 for 26 (.346) using a pair doubles in his career against Velasquez. In addition, he snapped a mini-slump with a double last time out, so let’s look for Freeman to build that effort from a struggling pitcher tonight off.
2B — Wilmer Flores (ARI) — $2,600 vs. MIA
I surely will need to get some worth in this lineup with an expensive Verlander in the top and pair of expensive Braves bats, and I’ve discovered a three-man value stack from the Diamondbacks with this slate, a team projected to score 5.1 runs upside against left-hander Caleb Smith plus a feeble Marlins bullpen. There is a couple of things working in the D-backs’ favor tonight. They rank in baseball using a .353 group wOBA versus pitching, thanks to the players within this pile. Secondly, after a nice start to his year, Smith was hit hard initially, posting a 4.81 ERA because the All-Star fracture using a 6.39 mark in August along with a 4.76 mark so far in September. Finally, Smith possesses a 4.77 ERA, 5.87 FIP, 5.05 xFIP and a 2.59 HR/9 speed on the street in comparison to a 3.56 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 4.33 xFIP along with a 1.23 HR/9 speed in your home. The home run rate is greater than double on the street than at home. Enter Flores who’s once again mashing left handed pitching this year to the song of a .340 average, .309 ISO, 1.023 OPS, .420 wOBA along with a 160 wRC+. These are some very amounts. In addition, he owns lefties for an even greater .380 ISO, 1.186 OPS, .482 wOBA and massive 200 wRC+ from lefties at home. There’s only a ton to enjoy about the matchup ahead contrary to the Smith.
3B — Josh Donaldson (ATL) — $3,400 vs. PHI
Next guy up in our Braves heap is Donaldson who’s putting himself in a nice position to make some big bucks as a free agent against the winter, thanks in large part for his work at home against right-handed pitching in 2019. Donaldson has certainly mashed right-handers overall as a part of his own reverse-splits this season as he has posted a .280 ISO, .931 OPS, .387 wOBA along with 137 wRC+ to the season from opposite-handed pitching, but he has posted powerful numbers against lefties as well. Nevertheless, his best split is in the home from righties — undoubtedly. At SunTrust Park versus right-handed pitching this year, the former AL MVP has published an eye-popping .397 ISO, 1.209 OPS, .486 wOBA and 202 wRC+. To put it differently, his bat was 102% more productive than league average at home versus righties this year. This matters as Donaldson isn’t the hitter on the street where he has posted a .193 ISO and .719 OPS against righties this year. Donaldson is enjoying a big month of September to boot as he has submitted a .289 ISO, 1.016 OPS, .425 wOBA and 162 wRC+ to the month for this point with the latter figure linking July due to his most rewarding month of the 2019 season. Sign me up daily here with all the veteran slugger.
SS — Nick Ahmed (ARI) — $2,500 vs. MIA
Keep an eye on the confirmed beginning lineups as we move forward during the day as Ahmed left last night’s match with a cut on his hands after shooting a grounder off of it, however he had been confident post-game that he will play tonight and he’s been a horse that year for the D-backs, so I think he will begin this match tonight. That’s a fantastic thing because there is plenty of upside down in his bat at a matchup against the Smith. Ahmed has witnessed his soda growth since the beginning of this 2018 season, and that’s been the situation here in 2019 too, largely against left-wing pitching. He will go into play tonight wearing a impressive .256 ISO, .961 OPS, .394 wOBA along with 143 wRC+ to this year versus right-handed pitching. The news is better as his best divide — by far — is in home versus lefties where he’s touched them up to get a .328 ISO, 1.110 OPS, .447 wOBA and 178 wRC+. We even get a stolen base upside with tonight as he has stolen seven luggage in addition to his 18 homers. He’s not getting a terribly successful month to this point, but I think in the amounts he’s posted at house versus lefties — much more so against a pitcher who has fought on the road and of late also.
OF — Nick Markakis (ATL) — $2,600 vs. PHI
Next person up in our Braves heap is Markakis who simply does not get the credit he deserves for how great his bat continues to be against right-handed pitching. He doesn’t find much attention because of the overall shortage of home run power because he possesses just a .159 ISO versus righties this season, and it has slugged just nine homers in a league in which the long ball is on the rise to be certain. Nevertheless, he still owns an .856 ISO, .363 wOBA along with 121 wRC+ vs righties this year. His bat is 21% greater than league average versus right-handed pitching. A frequent theme in this lineup as been players playing in their very best divide, and that’s true with Markakis as well. The veteran outfielder has been quite good in the home versus righties where he has posted a .184 ISO, .936 OPS, .395 wOBA and 142 wRC+. He’s also been very good since missing about six weeks of activity with a busted wrist — usually a challenging injury to return from. In three games since returning, he’s gone for 14 (.500) with a double, two runs scored and three RBI. Just has not missed a beat. He’s also a .400 hitter with a dual in 20 at-bats from Velasquez in his profession. There is a whole lot of importance to be unlocked tonight.
OF — Matt Joyce (ATL) — $2,400 vs. PHI
Completing our four-man pile is Joyce who has left his big league cash hitting right-wing pitching during his journeyman career. The batting average is truly very good against both genders’ handedness, but he is logged just 20 at-bats versus lefties using a .300 average to show for it. Against righties, however, he has hit .293 and the energy is far better with a .185 ISO, however, likewise an .884 OPS, .379 wOBA and 132 wRC+. The bat is so productive versus righties as a result of a large 16% drop rate that has his OPS, wOBA and wRC+ amounts soaring. Once more, we have a hitter hitting a successful breakup with Joyce. In the home from righties, the amounts improve to some .203 ISO, .952 OPS, .404 wOBA along with 148 wRC+. I’ll happily take the power and total production for a outcome, although his walk rate is actually lower in the home than on the street. We also possess Joyce enjoying his very best month of the year here in September as he’s submitted a .241 ISO, 1.011 OPS, .428 wOBA and 164 wRC+ for the month for this point. It’s a very small sample, but it is well worth noting that he is also a walk in his career against Velasquez and 2 for 2 with a homer. I run in what should be a productive four-man Braves this day and’ll take the worth.
OF — Mark Canha (OAK) — $3,200 vs. KC
I’d $3,200 left for an outfielder after rostering Verlander, my Braves pile along with a three-man D-backs pile, and of the set my pick of this litter is Canha who’s having a breakout season at 30 years of age. I was also tempted to choose the Indians’ Franmil Reyes awarded his hard power power, but I enjoy Canha’s breaks as he takes on right-hander Jorge Lopez and the Kansas City Royals tonight at the O.Co Coliseum in Oakland. Entering play tonight, Canha has published inverse splits here in 2019. He possesses a .285 typical, .247 ISO, .940 OPS, .395 wOBA and 153 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching this year — most of which are superior to his figures versus lefties. This isn’t a recording, however we have a player enjoying his best split in this matchup. Canha has possessed right-handers at home this year where he’s submitted a .258 ISO, 1.058 OPS, .442 wOBA along with 184 wRC+. This wRC+ figure is that his split of all of them. At the plate in September, Canha has slowed down Following a August. He’s played in three consecutive games and also has a homer in that time. Keep in mind Lopez possesses a 5.44 ERA and 1.62 HR/9 on this season, so I’ll take Canha’s positive breaks from a targetable starting pitcher .
UTIL — Carson Kelly (ARI) — $2,500 vs. MIA
Completing our pile along with this lineup is Kelly who’s done some harm against left-handed pitchers this season. This winter, after coming out of the Cardinals in the Paul Goldschmidt 18, kelly has appreciated a true season. In his first full season in the bigs, Kelly is now recently posted a .247 ISO overall with 18 home runs despite adhering fewer than 350 plate appearances round 105 games to the point. Nevertheless, the bat was surreal against lefties who he has possessed to the song of a .363 typical, .325 ISO, 1.156 OPS, .462 wOBA along with a 187 wRC+. That is so impressive on your very first full season in the big leagues. For your very first time within this lineup, we’ve got a hitter not hitting his best split. Nevertheless, I really don’t think I will argue over Kelly’s .220 ISO, .977 OPS, .397 wOBA along with 145 wRC+. It’s a bit of a bummer which Kelly has suffered a true month of September but there is a silver lining as he snapped a hitless streak with a hit and a run scored just last night. He is also a walk in a very small sample against Smith and 1 for 2 with an RBI. Given the price and the pile, the value Kelly brings to the table in a matchup tonight that is very attractive is being loved by me.
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